Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Will Israel & the US launch munitions at a target in Iran at any point before April 2nd, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 86.89% -9.5 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 60/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.3% -9.5 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

The market strongly favors PR to win by at least 1.5 points over Rune Eaters.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

The market strongly favors over 2.5 games in this geopolitical context.

Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

The market strongly favors a YES outcome for the game handicap.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Map Handicap: MINLATE (-1.5) vs Hashiras (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts

The market strongly favors MINLATE to outperform Hashiras.

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.11% -9 pts

Market favors Zelenskyy remaining in power post-war with a 64.11% probability.

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.59% -9 pts

High probability of Iran announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by July 2026.

Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.15% -9 pts

Market indicates a high probability of US-Cuba military conflict before 2028.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 28?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 77.6% -9 pts

High probability for Taipei's temperature to reach 21°C on March 28.

[Metaculus] Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.26% -9 pts

High probability suggests the U.S. will remain in NATO until 2029.

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.22% -9 pts

Market favors Taiwan surpassing the USA in GDP per capita by 2035 if not invaded.

Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.62% -9 pts

Market shows a slight belief that Israel-Iran war could lead to global conflict.

Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market favors a NO outcome, indicating skepticism about the YES prediction.

Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61.5% -9 pts

Market favors a tweet from Khamenei on March 21, 2026, with a 70.5% probability.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.5% -9 pts

Market favors over 2.5 games, but AI suggests a lower likelihood.

Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market favors NEMI slightly, but AI suggests a stronger chance for 1WIN.

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65% -9 pts

Market indicates a strong likelihood of USD falling to 1.5M rials by March 31.

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.01% -9 pts

High probability for a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration on consumer hardware by 2030.

Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.89% -9 pts

Market favors Paramount Skydance acquiring Warner Brothers Discovery by 2026.

Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 140.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.5% -9 pts

Market leans slightly towards the 'NO' outcome for the O/U 140.5 line.

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