Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
23.18%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.18% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the US and Iran announce a formal bilateral ceasefire or de-escalation agreement before June 30, 2026?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +7 pts
55/100
The market shows a divided outlook on a US-Iran ceasefire by mid-2026.
Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
34.45%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.45% +7 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of the Russo-Ukrainian War ending by 2026.
Will the EU approve a new Ukraine aid package before May 1, 2026?
29.05%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.05% +7 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of EU approval for Ukraine aid by May 2026.
Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending April 2026 exceed 220000 kg?
20.78%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.78% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending April 2026 exceed 140000 kg?
32.16%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.16% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Valve announce new hardware prices in March 2026?
8%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26% +7 pts
50/100
Market leans towards NO for Valve announcing new hardware prices in March 2026.
Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending April 2026 exceed 320000 kg?
27.26%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.26% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 140000 kg?
27.26%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.26% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 220000 kg?
27.26%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.26% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Israel attack South Africa before end of 2026
5.69%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.92% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of an Israeli attack on South Africa by 2026.
Civil War in Iran in 2026?
25.91%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34% +7 pts
50/100
The market suggests a low likelihood of civil war in Iran by 2026.
A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
23.18%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.18% +7 pts
40/100
Market shows low probability for nuclear weapon use before 2029.
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8.14%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.14% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of war between western countries before 2030.
Did Russia kill Jeffrey Epstein?
8.5%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.5% +7 pts
40/100
The market shows a low probability that Russia killed Jeffrey Epstein.
Will A.J. Ewart win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.5% +7 pts
50/100
A.J. Ewart has a low chance of winning the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open.
Will Switzerland join NATO before 2030?
9.34%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.34% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability for Switzerland joining NATO before 2030, with market leaning towards NO.
Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?
10.75%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.75% +7 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of military action against Iran ending by March 2026.
Will a new international conflict start next week?
18%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +7 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of a new international conflict starting next week.
Did anyone working on this bad movie ever win an an academy award? (March 16 2026)
21.69%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.69% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 20 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?
33.5%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no significant impact on crude oil supply by May 2026.
Will DR Congo and Rwanda sign a ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
31.07%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.07% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will "Natural emergent misalignment from reward hac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15.28%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.28% +7 pts
50/100
The market favors 'NO' for the post making the top fifty in the review.
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
0.6%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $29K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.8% +7 pts
50/100
Market indicates low confidence in over $160M for P2P Protocol sale.
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