Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.59% -9 pts

High probability of Iran announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by July 2026.

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.3% -9 pts

Market shows a slight favor for Ukraine gaining territory in 2026.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55% -9 pts

Market shows a 64% chance Kharg Island will be out of Iranian control by May 31.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.5% -9 pts

Market favors a shift in control of Kharg Island by June 30.

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51% -9 pts

There's a 60% chance a nuclear bomb will be detonated before 2033.

Will the Dow hit 50k before the number of American troops in Iran does?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.77% -9 pts

Market favors the Dow hitting 50k before troop numbers in Iran.

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61.4% -9 pts

Market predicts a 70.40% chance of a nuclear weapon being used offensively by 2040.

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.38% -9 pts

Market is divided on whether Manifold will view the US bombing positively.

Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2025?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 77.63% -9 pts

High probability suggests Russia will become more authoritarian in 2025.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market slightly favors more than 2.5 games, but AI suggests fewer games are likely.

Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market favors a NO outcome, suggesting a potential undervaluation of that position.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market favors fewer than 2.5 games, with a slight edge for the NO side.

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.19% -9 pts

Market shows a slight preference for Xi Jinping continuing leadership until 2028.

Will Hugh Jackman appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.02% -9 pts

Market shows a slight edge for Hugh Jackman's appearance in 'Avengers: Secret Wars'.

Will Iran kill atleast 5 more American soldiers by end March

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72.26% -9 pts

High probability suggests belief in potential attacks on U.S. soldiers by Iran.

Will America send troops to Iran?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 45.78% -9 pts

Market shows a slight probability of troop deployment to Iran, but opinions are closely divided.

Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.81% -9 pts

High probability for increased nuclear power production in the USA by 2033.

Est ce l’Amérique va bombardé l’Iran

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.13% -9 pts

High probability for U.S. bombing Iran, but NO side may be undervalued.

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.35% -9 pts

Market indicates a 57.35% chance of Iran's government falling by 2030.

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 86.71% -9 pts

High confidence in China's rebar quality meeting standards by 2025.

Will Iran appoint a new Supreme Leader by April 1st, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.69% -9 pts

High probability of Iran appointing a new Supreme Leader by April 2026.

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.06% -9 pts

Market predicts China's EV charging capacity will exceed 350M kW by 2027 with high confidence.

Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.66% -9 pts

Market indicates a strong likelihood of Putin remaining in power until 2028.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.74% -9 pts

Market suggests a high probability of Mojtaba Khamenei being killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026.

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