Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51% -9 pts

There's a 60% chance a nuclear bomb will be detonated before 2033.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.5% -9 pts

Market favors a shift in control of Kharg Island by June 30.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55% -9 pts

Market shows a 64% chance Kharg Island will be out of Iranian control by May 31.

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47% -9 pts

Market shows a slight lean towards military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026.

Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2025?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.03% -9 pts

Market indicates a 60% chance of increased authoritarianism in Iran by 2025.

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.54% -9 pts

Market leans towards a potential invasion, but AI suggests a lower likelihood.

Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.42% -9 pts

High probability suggests belief in Russian territorial gains in Ukraine by 2026.

Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88.11% -9 pts

High probability suggests Israel is likely to exist in 2032.

Will China become more authoritarian in 2025?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.82% -9 pts

Market leans towards China becoming more authoritarian in 2025.

Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.5% -9 pts

The market favors Natus Vincere slightly, indicating a potential undervaluation.

Will Israel exist two years from now?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88.82% -9 pts

High probability suggests strong belief in Israel's continued existence in two years.

Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81.43% -9 pts

Market shows high confidence in Zelensky's survival during the war.

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.93% -9 pts

Market shows a higher probability for a visible supernova by 2100.

Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47% -9 pts

Market shows a slight lean towards OpenAI maintaining its military red lines by 2026.

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.5% -9 pts

Market indicates a strong likelihood of Israeli military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026.

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.18% -9 pts

Market suggests a slight chance of a new nuclear state emerging by 2030.

Will Robert Downey Jr. appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 84.27% -9 pts

High probability for Robert Downey Jr.'s appearance in Avengers: Secret Wars.

Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60% -9 pts

Market predicts a 69% chance of a nuclear explosion by 2030.

Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market favors AUR slightly, but AI suggests TheMongolz has a stronger chance.

Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 83.68% -9 pts

High probability suggests Israel is likely to survive the predicted destruction date.

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 45.08% -9 pts

Market shows a slight edge for more developers by June 2026, but uncertainty remains high.

Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.27% -9 pts

Market strongly favors China doubling its nuclear arsenal by 2030.

Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48% -9 pts

Market shows a slight probability for U.S. troop deployment in Iran by 2026.

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50% -9 pts

Market shows a slight lean towards military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026.

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