Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

The market favors a NO outcome, indicating skepticism about the YES prediction.

Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.62% -9 pts

Market shows a slight belief that Israel-Iran war could lead to global conflict.

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.22% -9 pts

Market favors Taiwan surpassing the USA in GDP per capita by 2035 if not invaded.

[Metaculus] Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.26% -9 pts

High probability suggests the U.S. will remain in NATO until 2029.

Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61.02% -9 pts

Market indicates a high likelihood of increased authoritarianism in Iran by 2026.

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.05% -9 pts

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. NO side may be undervalued.

Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52% -9 pts

Market shows a 61% chance Powell will say 'War' at the March press conference.

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.45% -9 pts

Market favors China landing on the Moon first, but AI suggests otherwise.

Peggy Flanagan and Graham Platner both elected senators in November 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.6% -9 pts

Market shows a higher probability for Flanagan and Platner's election than AI predictions suggest.

Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-3.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.5% -9 pts

The market favors a NO outcome, indicating skepticism about the YES probability.

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.28% -9 pts

High probability that the ICJ will find Israel committed war crimes in Gaza.

Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60% -9 pts

Market favors Powell saying 'Shutdown' with a 69% probability ahead of the press conference.

Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50% -9 pts

Market shows a slight lean towards Powell mentioning 'Food' or 'Energy' three times.

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72% -9 pts

One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Picture with an 81% market probability.

Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72% -9 pts

High probability that Powell will say 'Comment' in the March press conference.

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.45% -9 pts

Market shows a higher likelihood of US military operations against 8+ countries in 2026.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.6% -9 pts

High probability for Taipei's temperature to be 25°C or below on March 30.

Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.5% -9 pts

Market favors Team Liquid slightly, but AI suggests a stronger chance for TY.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Irvine Anteaters: O/U 138.5

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.5% -9 pts

The market shows a close probability split on the O/U for the game.

Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42% -9 pts

Market favors Map Handicap slightly, but AI suggests a stronger chance for Monte.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Irvine Anteaters: O/U 136.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.5% -9 pts

The market favors a lower score in the game, with a slight edge for the NO side.

Will Roy Cooper run for and be elected Senator for North Carolina in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81.89% -9 pts

High probability suggests strong belief in Cooper's Senate candidacy and potential election success.

At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.99% -9 pts

Market strongly favors Russia controlling Ukrainian territory post-war.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.5% -9 pts

Market leans slightly towards fewer than 2.5 games, with a notable undervaluation on the NO side.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131