|
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
16.68% |
21.18% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
46.74% |
51.24% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.08% |
46.58% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
0.7% |
10.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
5.05% |
9.6% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
44% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
44% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Minneapolis" this week? (March 29)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
53.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Trump say "Death Tax" this week? (March 29)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
50.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold
Politics
|
51.09% |
47.36% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
82% |
77.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.31% |
27.87% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI create a game-playing AI that uses Sora?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.25% |
20.46% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
10% |
16.16% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.25% |
5.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accep…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
33% |
37.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
23.69% |
27.54% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Polymarket
Politics
|
2.15% |
6.6% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Kurt Wedekind win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Polymarket
Politics
|
2.75% |
7.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.03% |
46.53% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.26% |
14.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Trump visits China by May 15?
Manifold
Politics
|
56.83% |
52.73% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Alina Habba be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?
Polymarket
Politics
|
0.25% |
4.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla increase deliveries in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
36.38% |
40.88% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|