|
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
30% |
30% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.64% |
20.25% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
GPT-6 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
74.36% |
69.36% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 30 days?
Manifold
Crypto
|
45.25% |
51% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1.09% |
12.38% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
2.11% |
9.68% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.32% |
35.46% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.13% |
21.13% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Gemini 4 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
77.94% |
73.21% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Bitcoin fall below $10k for 1 hour before 2040?
Manifold
Crypto
|
10.06% |
15.06% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
30.33% |
35.33% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
27.37% |
21.66% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
7.52% |
12.52% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee T…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
73.06% |
68.06% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
27.68% |
32.68% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
93% |
88% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
39% |
44% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
will tesla stock exceed $500 a share by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
61.6% |
57.81% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.14% |
14.14% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
69.21% |
71.74% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13% |
18% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20% |
26.82% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 203…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
88.8% |
83.8% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
67% |
61% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|