|
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
46.45% |
31.86% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
23.48% |
27.82% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especiall…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63% |
55.44% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission?
Manifold
Crypto
|
13.2% |
9.59% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will China invade Taiwan by year's end?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.05% |
16.97% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Ali Larijani succeed Khamenei as the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
0.19% |
6% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70.39% |
69.46% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.41% |
11.41% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.5% |
15.21% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at e…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
97.16% |
92.12% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current sus…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
35.42% |
40.04% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Bitcoin 79k in end march
Manifold
Crypto
|
1% |
8.09% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of March?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
2.89% |
27.45% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Iran Government falls before end of March 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1% |
10.47% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.58% |
24.18% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
0.83% |
28.38% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.58% |
14.58% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
5% |
10% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.32% |
35.48% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
us nukes Iran in 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.86% |
9.75% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.1% |
16.01% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63.93% |
58.56% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
85.51% |
80.51% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Bitcoin $80K in March?
Manifold
Crypto
|
1% |
21% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|