|
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
37.49% |
45.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
Polymarket
Politics
|
6.45% |
12.3% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
Polymarket
Politics
|
16.25% |
23.9% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Polymarket
Politics
|
15% |
18% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30.76% |
35.26% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.56% |
16.07% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25% |
25.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
4.19% |
8.69% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25.33% |
29.83% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.63% |
10.13% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of thei…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
37.33% |
41.83% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
38.1% |
42.6% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
29.8% |
34.3% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.21% |
18.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla declare bankruptcy by the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
4.53% |
9.03% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
24% |
18.31% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.07% |
6.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest pric…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.91% |
10.41% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
44.29% |
48.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times ficti…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
35.92% |
40.42% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
20% |
24.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.18% |
29.13% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will humans wipe out AI by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
6.52% |
10.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30.53% |
35.03% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|