Markets where our AI model diverges most from current crowd pricing. A positive edge means YES may be undervalued. A negative edge means NO may be undervalued.
| Market | Market | AI | ⚡ Edge | Conf | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Game 2: Ends in Daytime?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 1: Ends in Daytime?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
12.95% | 17.71% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.95% | 11.74% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Will Bitcoin hit $100.000 again before July 1, 2026?
Manifold
Crypto
|
16% | 24% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
86.73% | 75.55% | -5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will an AI model solve a FrontierMath Open Problem before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
90.82% | 79.39% | -5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
7.97% | 21% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
13.5% | 19% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Game 2: Any Player Rampage?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 2: Ends in Daytime?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Game 2: Any Player Rampage?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
0% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
2% | 12.73% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1.69% | 9.33% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.32% | 33.97% | +5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% | 55% | +5 pts | 60 | YES |