|
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.79% |
7.22% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cit…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25% |
29.04% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.45% |
31.95% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
52.26% |
54.47% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27% |
34.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
82% |
77.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
56% |
51.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22.74% |
27.24% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
18.13% |
23.33% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by t…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
39.57% |
44.07% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.77% |
32.27% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
47.59% |
52.09% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.26% |
18.46% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
20.38% |
24.88% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
29.2% |
33.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
10.33% |
20.91% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7.07% |
9.4% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.53% |
17.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
34.06% |
38.56% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
23.77% |
28.27% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
26.31% |
27.96% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
31.42% |
35.92% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22% |
26.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30% |
34.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|