|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
3.92% |
8.92% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb b…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
18.37% |
23.37% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Israel have stricter laws against homosexuality than Saudi Arabia by 2040?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
5.12% |
10.12% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tether collapse before 2028?
Manifold
Crypto
|
7.02% |
12.02% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
92.47% |
87.47% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
19.87% |
24.87% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
75% |
70% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 20…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.88% |
11.88% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
81.27% |
76.27% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.6% |
12.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Apple CEO Tim Cook announce his retirement or resignation by the end of 203…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
97.68% |
92.68% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.94% |
25.64% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by m…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
35.71% |
40.71% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70% |
65% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Israel fully annex the west bank by 2045?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
23.5% |
28.5% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in u…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.48% |
22.48% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.53% |
25% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
23.11% |
34.12% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
14% |
16% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.93% |
14.93% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030
Manifold
Crypto
|
12.72% |
16.72% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Danny Devito play Wario in any official Nintendo movie before the end of 20…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.86% |
30.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
60.5% |
55.5% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
97.68% |
92.68% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|