|
Will King Charles III outlive Trump?
Manifold
Politics
|
74.99% |
59% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Trump is US President on December 31, 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
86.6% |
80.77% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will the midterm elections take place on November 3rd?
Manifold
Politics
|
93.73% |
88.66% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump declare the Iran war to be won in the next month?
Manifold
Politics
|
90.84% |
76.94% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will trump be alive until March 10 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
99% |
92% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
90.29% |
82.44% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Delcy Rodríguez still be President of Venezuela on May 4, 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
84.26% |
77% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
Manifold
Politics
|
98.8% |
88.9% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
Manifold
Politics
|
79.17% |
68.78% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
61% |
54% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Donald Trump and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
93.64% |
79.02% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump allow the US Mid-term elections to run in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
87.29% |
86.13% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
58.33% |
57.45% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Talarico outperform Beto O'Rourke in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas?
Manifold
Politics
|
60.7% |
56.11% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?
Manifold
Politics
|
89.45% |
83.08% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Alabama in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
62% |
55% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
73% |
66% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit New York in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
92.8% |
85.8% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?
Manifold
Politics
|
52.91% |
58% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Nevada in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
69.5% |
62.5% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Kentucky in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
64.5% |
57.5% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Maine in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
66.5% |
59.5% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)…
Manifold
Politics
|
74.2% |
54.77% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Donald Trump visit Louisiana in 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
62% |
55% |
-7 pts
|
55
|
YES
|