|
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.6% |
12.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
81.27% |
76.27% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 20…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.88% |
11.88% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
75% |
70% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
19.87% |
24.87% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
92.47% |
87.47% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Tether collapse before 2028?
Manifold
Crypto
|
7.02% |
12.02% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Israel have stricter laws against homosexuality than Saudi Arabia by 2040?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
5.12% |
10.12% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb b…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
18.37% |
23.37% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
3.92% |
8.92% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
34.53% |
38.36% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
37.1% |
42.1% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
32.52% |
36.96% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.33% |
70.16% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17% |
22% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70.68% |
63.76% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13% |
18% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Bitcoin reach $5k before it reaches $500k?
Manifold
Crypto
|
21.5% |
26.71% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US cit…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
79.84% |
75.39% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.54% |
21.54% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.85% |
23.35% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
23% |
28% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
64.38% |
59.38% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.82% |
22.82% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|