|
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
86.09% |
70% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.39% |
23.98% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
82.22% |
77.22% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13.54% |
19.42% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
33.26% |
38.26% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.13% |
13.09% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.14% |
14.14% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
will tesla stock exceed $500 a share by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
61.6% |
57.81% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
39% |
44% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
93% |
88% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
27.68% |
32.68% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
7.52% |
12.52% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76% |
75.19% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model fa…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
32.86% |
40.18% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia join the EU before 2040?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.98% |
11.98% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.17% |
21.17% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths bef…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.73% |
11.73% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuq…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
33% |
39.01% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China claim to have discovered life on Mars before 2035?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20% |
24% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
36% |
41% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ethereum reach $1,000 before it reaches $10,000?
Manifold
Crypto
|
37.31% |
42.31% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.86% |
26.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.67% |
22.67% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency replace the US Dollar by 2030?
Manifold
Crypto
|
3.5% |
8.5% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|