|
Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
75.67% |
69.1% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.7% |
11.99% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will "Ordinary" by Alex Warren be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21…
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0.25% |
6.05% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palest…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10% |
15% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.39% |
31.39% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% |
14.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
89.87% |
84.87% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10.06% |
15% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new agreement by March 20, …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
2.59% |
11.25% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.69% |
37% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will DOGE find something on government computers that leads to an indictment?
Manifold
Crypto
|
13.07% |
22.02% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Sta…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.83% |
71.83% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% |
39% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Bitcoin below $52K before March 31, 2026?
Manifold
Crypto
|
1% |
9.97% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.79% |
17% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1.09% |
12.38% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major aud…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63.83% |
58.83% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
30% |
30% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.64% |
20.25% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
GPT-6 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
74.36% |
69.36% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 30 days?
Manifold
Crypto
|
45.25% |
51% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.32% |
35.46% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Gemini 4 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
77.94% |
73.21% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.13% |
21.13% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|