|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
0.77% |
5.27% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
45% |
49.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
90
|
YES
|
|
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Polymarket
Politics
|
1.6% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
90
|
YES
|
|
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Polymarket
Politics
|
95.3% |
90.1% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?
Polymarket
Politics
|
94.5% |
83.5% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Polymarket
Politics
|
62.5% |
58.5% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket
Politics
|
84.5% |
80.5% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Hillary" or "Clinton" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Drone" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Putin" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Hormuz" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
85
|
YES
|
|
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Polymarket
Politics
|
63.5% |
58.5% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Polymarket
Politics
|
76% |
71% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Polymarket
Politics
|
33.5% |
56.5% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary el…
Polymarket
Politics
|
70.5% |
75% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
95.95% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Roadside Bomb" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
95.95% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
95.95% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
95.95% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
96% |
-4 pts
|
80
|
YES
|
|
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
Polymarket
Politics
|
99.9% |
80% |
-4 pts
|
75
|
YES
|
|
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Polymarket
Politics
|
99.95% |
63.5% |
-4 pts
|
75
|
YES
|
|
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hu…
Polymarket
Politics
|
66.5% |
58.5% |
-4 pts
|
75
|
YES
|