|
Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.72% |
23.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.1% |
22.35% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.18% |
30.38% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
57.62% |
54.12% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.58% |
19.08% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential …
Polymarket
Politics
|
2% |
6.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele…
Polymarket
Politics
|
7.9% |
12.4% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential elect…
Polymarket
Politics
|
4.4% |
8.9% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele…
Polymarket
Politics
|
6.15% |
10.65% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presi…
Polymarket
Politics
|
2.4% |
6.9% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Trump talk to Masoud Pezeshkian in March?
Polymarket
Politics
|
0.6% |
8.4% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?
Polymarket
Politics
|
8% |
12% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?
Polymarket
Politics
|
3.9% |
8.45% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?
Polymarket
Politics
|
1.3% |
5.8% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?
Polymarket
Politics
|
3.3% |
7.65% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff?
Polymarket
Politics
|
0.7% |
5.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling compara…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
29.9% |
34.54% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
39% |
43.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
9.05% |
25.94% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.83% |
10.33% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
99.95% |
70.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
45% |
49.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a pro…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25.27% |
32.66% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
40% |
44.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|