|
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
41.7% |
46.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will Trump be regarded as a fascist by most mainstream scholars in 2050?
Manifold
Politics
|
60% |
55.5% |
-4.5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
17.24% |
21.74% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
6% |
10.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.86% |
22.09% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.17% |
12.67% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
16.28% |
20.78% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.16% |
15.66% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
24.95% |
29.45% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.47% |
12.78% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.21% |
18.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
19.62% |
24.12% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7% |
11.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
21.39% |
25.89% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.2% |
15.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
3.56% |
8.06% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% |
95.45% |
-4.5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Perle Labs FDV above $80M one day after launch?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
99.95% |
95.25% |
-4.5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% |
94.7% |
-4.5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.73% |
11.49% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.51% |
46.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
33.11% |
37.61% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
17.7% |
22.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.1% |
18.18% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|