|
Tesla completes 100,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.3% |
6.11% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will NVIDIA’s stock price on March 20, 2026 be lower than on March 18, 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
50% |
49.14% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
Manifold
Politics
|
52.4% |
54.94% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
SSI/Ilya ship an AI before July 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
17.38% |
21.88% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably…
Manifold
Politics
|
75% |
46.57% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will New York pass a law regulating AI giving professional advice (S-7263) in 20…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
26.31% |
30.81% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
will deepseek-v4 destroy all other models?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
6.77% |
12.21% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
39.97% |
47.13% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
13.35% |
14.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Anthropic's Claude 5 released before 4/20
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.67% |
27.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Anthropic acquired by another company before EOY 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
6.66% |
11.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.81% |
24.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
45.5% |
50% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Anthropic leave AWS in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7.39% |
12.33% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
15.39% |
20.46% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25.29% |
29.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Nvidia below $140 by end of March 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.33% |
11.19% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold
Politics
|
55% |
51.57% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
AI market crash by the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.1% |
6.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Donald Trump's 'Patriot Games' Actually Happen in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
54.44% |
49.94% |
-4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
3.25% |
7.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Ja…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
24% |
52.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30% |
34.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7.73% |
12.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|