|
Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2031?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
22.37% |
27.37% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
14.84% |
19.84% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by Jun 2029?
Manifold
Crypto
|
26.61% |
33.81% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
7.52% |
12.52% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
93% |
88% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.14% |
14.14% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.13% |
13.09% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
33.26% |
38.26% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13.54% |
19.42% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
82.22% |
77.22% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.39% |
23.98% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
86.09% |
70% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2032?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
26% |
31% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
67% |
61% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20% |
26.82% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
29.01% |
34.01% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.5% |
17.17% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
15.2% |
19.19% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 203…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
88.8% |
83.8% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political iss…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
68.78% |
63.78% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
69.21% |
71.74% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
27.37% |
21.66% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
30.33% |
35.33% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
34.53% |
38.36% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|