|
Bitcoin 79k in end march
Manifold
Crypto
|
1% |
8.09% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current sus…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
35.42% |
40.04% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at e…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
97.16% |
92.12% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.5% |
15.21% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.41% |
11.41% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70.39% |
69.46% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Ali Larijani succeed Khamenei as the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
0.19% |
6% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will China invade Taiwan by year's end?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.05% |
16.97% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
99.06% |
92.62% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days
Manifold
Crypto
|
8.28% |
13.28% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Y Combinator fund 3 or more quantum-related startups in its next public bat…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
5.5% |
28.69% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 23?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
1.35% |
5.9% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.92% |
34.05% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 23?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0.4% |
5.95% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Judge Lin grant a preliminary injunction in Anthropic v. DoW?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
98.23% |
79.14% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.74% |
11.85% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
from now march 21 2026 Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before 2027?”
Manifold
Crypto
|
41% |
54.55% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.85% |
11% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Bitcoin $150K in 2026?
Manifold
Crypto
|
7.99% |
14% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
2.5% |
7.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.01% |
30.01% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Bitcoin close above $80,000 on April 30, 2026?
Manifold
Crypto
|
9.8% |
19.99% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will America send troops to Iran within this week?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10% |
15% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
77.6% |
72.6% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|