|
Will Elon Musk successfully defeat at least 5 Republicans in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
8.76% |
14.76% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Orbán Viktor's party win a supermajority of seats in the 2026 parliamentary…
Manifold
Politics
|
3.95% |
9.42% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tarif…
Manifold
Business & Finance
|
86.07% |
80.07% |
-6 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will any Republican Vote to Impeach Trump in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
20.21% |
22.61% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will "Eliezer's Unteachable Methods of Sanity" make the top fifty posts in LessW…
Manifold
Crypto
|
79.97% |
73.97% |
-6 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressio…
Manifold
Politics
|
3.97% |
9.97% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Trump and Xi meet as scheduled on March 31st?
Manifold
Politics
|
1.21% |
16.22% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will a Democratic member of congress be forced out?
Manifold
Politics
|
6.22% |
12.22% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Nicolás Maduro still be president on the March equinox in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
1% |
8.48% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
If Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
12.28% |
18% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
will trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold
Politics
|
5% |
15% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
Manifold
Politics
|
11.99% |
20.66% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections …
Manifold
Politics
|
5.35% |
11.35% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Former president Biden dead in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
9.14% |
15.02% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Tony Evers run for re-election as Governor of Wisconsin in 2026?
Manifold
Politics
|
1.54% |
7.54% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?
Manifold
Politics
|
15% |
21% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? (March 22)
Polymarket
Politics
|
14% |
12% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold
Politics
|
12.64% |
16.78% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will two Republicans win in California's June 2026 gubernatorial primary?
Manifold
Politics
|
10% |
16% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Trump impeached before Iran war's end?
Manifold
Politics
|
11.65% |
23.2% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?
Manifold
Business & Finance
|
82.37% |
76.37% |
-6 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Trump say "Tiger" this week? (March 29)
Polymarket
Politics
|
100% |
22.5% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
One Nation gets at least 5 seats in the South Australian election?
Manifold
Politics
|
1.89% |
16.02% |
+6 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will I get it together?
Manifold
Crypto
|
73.06% |
67.06% |
-6 pts
|
55
|
YES
|