Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the United States lose the war against Iran?
61%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.92% -11 pts
40/100
Market leans towards the U.S. losing the war against Iran, but confidence is low.
Will China Move up in the World Happiness Report
83.31%
Market YES
17%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 72.31% -11 pts
50/100
Market predicts a high likelihood of China improving its World Happiness Report ranking.
Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026?
39.64%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.51% -11 pts
50/100
Market indicates a 60.51% chance of renewed hostilities by June 30, 2026.
Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
54.95%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.95% -11 pts
45/100
Market favors China landing humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts.
Will Syria and Israel go to war by 2030
54.47%
Market YES
46%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.47% -11 pts
45/100
Market indicates a slight chance of war between Syria and Israel by 2030.
Should the world ban nuclear weapons?
59.02%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.02% -11 pts
50/100
The market shows a slight preference for banning nuclear weapons, but opinions are closely divided.
China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?
82.14%
Market YES
18%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71.14% -11 pts
50/100
Market indicates a strong belief that China's CO2 emissions will decrease in 2026.
If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
80.5%
Market YES
20%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 69.5% -11 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Forever Market for Daily Rewards
50.1%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.08% -11 pts
40/100
Market shows a slight preference for a NO outcome in geopolitics.
Will another Iranian official be killed
89.36%
Market YES
11%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78.36% -11 pts
55/100
High probability of another Iranian official being killed according to market data.
Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
63.81%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.81% -11 pts
45/100
Market shows a higher probability for a second Asian language novel winning a Hugo by 2030.
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]
65.65%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.65% -11 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?
66.6%
Market YES
33%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.6% -11 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026)
93.91%
Market YES
6%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 82.91% -11 pts
50/100
High probability that the 2025 Oscars Best Picture will pass the Bechdel Test.
Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
60.95%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.95% -11 pts
55/100
Market leans towards India building a military base in the southwest Indian Ocean by 2026.
Will gas prices continue to get higher because of the war
87.87%
Market YES
12%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 76.87% -11 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?
69.93%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 58.93% -11 pts
50/100
Market indicates a high probability of Hamas remaining in power by May 2026.
Will the new Syrian government demand withdrawal from Golan by Israel as an official position before EOY26?
52.72%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.72% -11 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hossein Deghan still be alive on June 1st 2026?
69.75%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50% -11 pts
50/100
Market shows a 61% chance Hossein Deghan will be alive by June 1, 2026.
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?
86.5%
Market YES
14%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 75.5% -11 pts
50/100
High probability that Khamenei will tweet on March 19, 2026.
Will "One Battle After Another" win at least 6 awards at the 2026 oscars?
81.98%
Market YES
18%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 70.98% -11 pts
55/100
High probability for 'One Battle After Another' to win at least 6 Oscars.
Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?
71.64%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60.64% -11 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Israel being rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028.
will Niger directly sell nuclear material to France in 2026?
65.73%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.73% -11 pts
50/100
Market shows a higher probability for Niger selling nuclear material to France in 2026.
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 90.5% -9.5 pts
55/100
The market strongly favors a YES outcome for the game handicap.
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