Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

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Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 26.23% +5 pts

Market indicates a low probability of a Russian attack on Baltic states by 2030.

Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.71% +5 pts

Market suggests low likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2028.

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.01% +5 pts

Market shows low probability for a nuclear strike by 2030.

Will Iran launch the 100th wave of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4" before March 27?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.98% +5 pts

Market leans towards no missile strike before March 27, with a 60% probability.

Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12% +5 pts

Turkey is unlikely to acquire nuclear weapons before 2031 according to current market data.

Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13.12% +5 pts

Low probability of a city being nuked if China invades Taiwan before 2040.

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 36.94% +5 pts

Market leans towards AI xrisk worries not being marginalized after anti-AI terrorism.

Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35.5% +5 pts

Market leans towards Powell not using 'Successor' in his upcoming press conference.

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.49% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of Warren Buffet living to 100 years old.

Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.5% +5 pts

Market predicts Powell will not say 'Not our job' at the March press conference.

Will "Ordinary" by Alex Warren be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.05% +5 pts

Market strongly favors 'Ordinary' not reaching Billboard #1 for March 21.

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.93% +5 pts

Low probability of nuclear weapon detonation in 2029 based on current market sentiment.

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.58% +5 pts

The market suggests a low likelihood of nuclear weapon use in the Middle East conflict before 2028.

Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27% +5 pts

Market suggests Powell is unlikely to say 'Inflation' 60+ times in March.

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13.6% +5 pts

The market shows a low probability of U.S. military defeat by rogue AI by 2035.

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 26.2% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability for an AI-generated song winning a major award by 2026.

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 28% +5 pts

Market indicates low likelihood of a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.85% +5 pts

The market strongly favors that Iran will not enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026.

2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.69% +5 pts

Low probability for World War III starting in 2023, with market favoring a NO outcome.

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.66% +5 pts

Market favors no sinking of a US Navy ship by Iran before 2030.

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35.33% +5 pts

The market suggests a low probability of a new US-Russia nuclear arms race before 2028.

Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.89% +5 pts

Low probability of Iran using nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030.

[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.69% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of China attacking or blockading Taiwan in 2026.

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.58% +5 pts

Low probability of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states by February 2029.

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