Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40% +5 pts

Market favors Powell not mentioning 'Supreme Court' in his upcoming press conference.

Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 176.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 30.5% +5 pts

Market favors a NO outcome for the O/U at 176.5 with a moderate confidence level.

Number of operational nuclear reactors in the world has surpasses 800 anytime before mid 2039

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 31.34% +5 pts

Market indicates low likelihood of surpassing 800 operational nuclear reactors by mid-2039.

Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of nuclear war over a cargo ship in 2026.

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.5% +5 pts

Market favors NO on Michigan covering a large spread.

United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new agreement by March 20, 2026

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.25% +5 pts

Low probability for a U.S.-Iran agreement by March 2026, with market favoring a NO outcome.

Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.93% +5 pts

Low probability of Poland's first SMR nuclear plant producing energy before 2029.

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-28.5)

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.5% +5 pts

Market favors a NO outcome for Michigan Wolverines covering the spread.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.08% +5 pts

Low probability for Reza Pahlavi to lead Iran this year, with market favoring a 'NO' outcome.

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.18% +5 pts

Low probability for Israel to significantly weaken Hezbollah by 2028.

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.1% +5 pts

Market leans towards no continuous nuclear fusion by 2030.

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.64% +5 pts

Low probability of Russia seizing the Suwałki Gap by 2026.

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 38.79% +5 pts

Market indicates skepticism about software engineers' productivity growth by 2028.

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.71% +5 pts

Low probability of armed conflict between US and Canada before 2029.

Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9% +5 pts

Low probability of Russia detonating a nuclear device in Ukraine by 2026.

[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25% +5 pts

Market favors Taiwan's independence with a low chance of Chinese control by 2030.

Will there be another significant accident in a nuclear power plant before 2035?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.47% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of a significant nuclear accident by 2035.

US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6% +5 pts

Low probability for a US Civil War by 2028, with market favoring a NO outcome.

Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21% +5 pts

North Korea's entry into the 2026 US-Iran war is currently unlikely.

Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17% +5 pts

Market indicates low likelihood of a Chinese military operation against Taiwan in 2026.

Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.5% +5 pts

Market leans towards Powell not saying 'Recession' in March.

Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.54% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of China sinking a US aircraft carrier by 2030.

Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18% +5 pts

Market favors 'NO' for Powell saying 'Refund' in March press conference.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 29?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.5% +5 pts

Market favors a NO outcome for Taipei's temperature reaching 23°C on March 29.

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