Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Trump complete 85% or more of Project 2025 by the end of 2027?
50.3%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.8% -6.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a near-even split on Trump's completion of Project 2025 by 2027.
Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?
59.37%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.87% -6.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates a higher chance of the Iranian regime surviving the Trump Administration.
Will there be an Asian-American President of the United States before 2060?
53.13%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.63% -6.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump say "Automatic" or "Automatically" during Kentucky visit?
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of Trump saying 'Automatic' or 'Automatically' during his Kentucky visit.
Will Keir Starmer lose his seat at the next general election?
59.38%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.88% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will chuck Schumer lead the senate democrats after 2026 elections?
53%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.53% -6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a slight edge for Schumer to lead Senate Democrats post-2026 elections.
Italy judicial reform: Will Parliament pass an implementing law by EOY 2027?
59.79%
Market YES
40%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.29% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Spread: Once Caldas (-1.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.9% -6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a close split in probabilities for Once Caldas' performance.
If Gavin Newsome is the Democratic nominee for 2028 will he win the election?
58%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.5% -6.5 pts
40/100
Gavin Newsome has a slight edge to win if nominated, but uncertainty remains high.
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Taoiseach events?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market predicts Trump will not use 'Bibi' or 'Netanyahu' at Taoiseach events.
Will Thomas Massie win an election in 2026?
59.83%
Market YES
40%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.33% -6.5 pts
50/100
Thomas Massie's chance of winning in 2026 is currently close, with a slight edge towards yes.
Will the party that loses the 2024 USA election win in 2028?
58.76%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.26% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?
56.06%
Market YES
44%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.56% -6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Another Donald Trump assassination attempt disclosed?
55.18%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.68% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?
59.28%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.59% -6.5 pts
40/100
Labor and the Greens have a slight edge for a Senate majority, but it's very close.
Will articles of impeachment be introduced against Trump in 2026?
57.02%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.52% -6.5 pts
50/100
There's a slight majority predicting impeachment articles against Trump in 2026.
Will François Ruffin be candidate to the 2027 french presidential election?
51.36%
Market YES
49%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.86% -6.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a slight lean towards Ruffin being a candidate in 2027.
Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get a pardon from President Isaac Herzog?
55%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.5% -6.5 pts
50/100
There's a close probability regarding Netanyahu receiving a pardon from Herzog.
Will voter turnout be higher in the 2028 election?
57.59%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.09% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Bill Cassidy make the runoff of the Louisiana Republican Primary for Senate?
57.38%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.88% -6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Spread: Cúcuta Deportivo FC (-2.5)
0.4%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.4% +6.5 pts
55/100
The market favors a NO outcome for Cúcuta Deportivo FC at 90.1%.
Will Bengal Elections be announced before 11th March 2026?
7.04%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.54% +6.5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low likelihood of Bengal Elections being announced before March 11, 2026.
Will the physical remains of Donald Trump lie in state in the capitol rotunda?
56.84%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.34% -6.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a slight lean towards Trump lying in state in the Capitol rotunda.
Will Trump say "Tanker" during Ohio visit?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.6% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market predicts Trump will not say 'Tanker' during his Ohio visit.
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