Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Donald Trump visit Tennessee in 2026?
50%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $193K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market shows equal chances for Trump visiting Tennessee in 2026.
Will Donald Trump visit Utah in 2026?
50%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $193K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
The market shows a balanced outlook on Trump's potential visit to Utah in 2026.
Will Harris English win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
85/100
The market indicates a strong belief that Harris English will not win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitat
Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
47.86%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $148K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a higher likelihood of Republicans controlling Congress post-2026 midterms.
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
38.97%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $148K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.4% +1.5 pts
55/100
The market favors Republicans to win the 2026 Texas Senate Election.
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
48.73%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $25K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.77% +1.5 pts
55/100
Lula or his endorsed candidate has a near-even chance of being president in January 2027.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21.34%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $470K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.87% +1.5 pts
45/100
JD Vance has a low probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election.
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?
6.37%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $74K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.42% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market favors gas prices exceeding four dollars if Trump becomes President.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?
44%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $38K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Vivek Ramaswamy's chances of becoming Ohio's Governor are closely contested.
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
46.2%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47.7% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a near-even split on whether suicide rates will decrease if Trump wins.
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
25.65%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.93% +1.5 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon by 2030 if Trump is elected.
Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
48.96%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.65% +1.5 pts
55/100
The market shows a near-even split on a Democrat winning the Ohio Senate special election.
Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
45.61%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $28K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.02% +1.5 pts
55/100
Dan Sullivan's re-election chances are closely contested, with a slight edge for 'NO'.
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
0.1%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $893K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.55% +1.5 pts
80/100
Dawn Buckingham is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary.
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $3.5M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.55% +1.5 pts
80/100
Beth Van Duyne is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary.
Will The Left win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4.4M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
90/100
The market strongly favors the NO outcome for The Left in the 2026 elections.
Will BSW win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4.4M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
90/100
The market strongly favors BSW not winning the second most seats in 2026.
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $3.1M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
95/100
The market strongly favors the Greens not winning the second most seats in 2026.
Will FDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4.4M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
90/100
The market strongly favors NO for FDP winning second most seats in 2026 elections.
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
44.77%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $64K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.56% +1.5 pts
45/100
JD Vance's nomination chance for 2028 is nearly even, indicating uncertainty.
Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?
43.52%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.11% +1.5 pts
45/100
JD Vance has a 43.61% chance of being the 2028 presidential nominee.
Will Trump Prosectors get a Grand Jury to indict Comey again before the end of March 2026?
9.91%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.52% +1.5 pts
60/100
Market favors a 'NO' outcome for a Trump indictment of Comey by March 2026.
Volt exceeds 4,000 votes in next Delft municipal elections.
1.82%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.1% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market favors NO on Volt exceeding 4,000 votes in Delft elections.
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
21.01%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $184K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.18% +1.5 pts
45/100
Market favors no third term run by Trump if elected in 2024.
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