Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

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Will Iran strike US soil this year?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 26.23% +5 pts

Market leans towards a low probability of an Iranian strike on US soil this year.

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.62% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of a serious war between major powers before 2028.

Will Andrew Tate post 250-279 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.2% +5 pts

The market strongly favors NO for Andrew Tate posting 250-279 times in the specified period.

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.64% +5 pts

Market suggests low probability of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons by 2031.

Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.37% +5 pts

Low probability of a nuclear bomb destroying a city by 2035.

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 38.79% +5 pts

Market indicates skepticism about software engineers' productivity growth by 2028.

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.71% +5 pts

Low probability of armed conflict between US and Canada before 2029.

Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9% +5 pts

Low probability of Russia detonating a nuclear device in Ukraine by 2026.

[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25% +5 pts

Market favors Taiwan's independence with a low chance of Chinese control by 2030.

Will there be another significant accident in a nuclear power plant before 2035?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.47% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of a significant nuclear accident by 2035.

US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6% +5 pts

Low probability for a US Civil War by 2028, with market favoring a NO outcome.

Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21% +5 pts

North Korea's entry into the 2026 US-Iran war is currently unlikely.

Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17% +5 pts

Market indicates low likelihood of a Chinese military operation against Taiwan in 2026.

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.64% +5 pts

Low probability of Russia seizing the Suwałki Gap by 2026.

Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 30.5% +5 pts

Market favors 'NO' on Powell mentioning 'China' in March press conference.

Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8% +5 pts

Low probability of getting a girlfriend before winning a USAMO award.

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.12% +5 pts

Market indicates a low probability of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon by 2030.

Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18% +5 pts

Market favors 'NO' for Powell saying 'Refund' in March press conference.

Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.54% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of China sinking a US aircraft carrier by 2030.

Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.5% +5 pts

Market leans towards Powell not saying 'Recession' in March.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 29?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.5% +5 pts

Market favors a NO outcome for Taipei's temperature reaching 23°C on March 29.

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.92% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of Yudkowsky winning a Turing Award by 2038.

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 22.82% +5 pts

Market favors 'NO' on Helion providing fusion power by 2028.

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18% +5 pts

Market indicates low probability of Russia occupying Kyiv before 2030.

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