Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Would Trump get a second assassination attempt 2026
34.7%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.11% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards no second assassination attempt on Trump by 2026.
Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
44.27%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.77% +1.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a close split on whether Trump's win will keep US CO2 emissions below 4.5 billion tons
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
11%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $275K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.5% +1.5 pts
60/100
Market shows equal probability for Trump ending military operations against Iran by April 7th.
Will Melania's remarks not air?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
80/100
The market strongly favors that Melania's remarks will air.
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $181K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump saying 'Six Seven' this week.
Will Trump say "Boeing" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Trump not saying 'Boeing' this week.
Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? (March 29)
16%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market favors Trump not using the phrase this week.
Will Trump say "Chuck Norris" this week? (March 29)
2.15%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump saying 'Chuck Norris' this week.
Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37% +1.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a higher likelihood that Trump will not say either word this week.
Will Trump say "Dark cloud" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a close probability for Trump saying 'Dark cloud' this week.
Will Trump say "Finish the Job" this week? (March 29)
12%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a near-even split on Trump saying 'Finish the Job' this week.
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.5% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates a low chance of Trump saying 'Peanut' this week.
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $33K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump mentioning 'Crypto' or 'Bitcoin' this week.
Will Trump say "Embargo" this week? (March 29)
13%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Trump not saying 'Embargo' this week.
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
7.5%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1.9M
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.5% +1.5 pts
60/100
Market shows equal odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7.
If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?
44.39%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $92K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.23% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a close divide on federal marijuana rescheduling if Trump wins.
Spread: AD Pasto (-2.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.55% +1.5 pts
80/100
Market strongly favors a NO outcome for AD Pasto's spread.
Fortaleza CEIF vs. AD Pasto: O/U 3.5
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $50K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.85% +1.5 pts
80/100
The market strongly favors a NO outcome for over 3.5 goals.
If Trump wins, will there be an attempt on his life by midterms?
25.77%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.27% +1.5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low probability of an assassination attempt on Trump if he wins.
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $16K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.55% +1.5 pts
85/100
The market strongly favors Trump not saying 'Job' 15+ times at the NRCC Dinner.
Will Trump's remarks not air?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.55% +1.5 pts
85/100
The market overwhelmingly expects Trump's remarks to air.
Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?
21%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $28K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.5% +1.5 pts
60/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump expanding high-skill immigration by 2026.
Will Trump's remarks not air?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts
85/100
The market strongly favors that Trump's remarks will air without interruption.
Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
16.53%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $20K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.48% +1.5 pts
45/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Trump running for a third term.
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